The interactive risk dashboard is a transparent model, not a black box. Every figure is derived from a defined method, grounded in established supply chain risk practice. This one-pager sets out how each number is produced.
Risk is grouped into six categories tuned to a renewable energy supply chain: geopolitical, climate-physical, social / human-rights, economic / financial, operational / single-source, and regulatory / compliance. Each carries a baseline likelihood and a monetary impact (€M).
Value-at-Risk (95%) is estimated with a 3,000-run Monte Carlo simulation: in each run a category incurs a loss drawn from a normal distribution around its impact if a random draw falls below its likelihood; losses are summed. The 95th percentile is the VaR, the mean of the tail beyond it is the CVaR, and the mean is the expected annual loss.
A weighted mean (0–100) of six factors — diversification, inventory buffers, dual-sourcing, visibility, financial strength and agility. The index dampens category impacts, so strengthening resilience visibly lowers Value-at-Risk.
Each supplier is scored 0–100 across five key risk indicators, combined with the weights below into a composite score.
Composite scores map to four tiers:
The headline score (0–100) blends three signals: Value-at-Risk (40%), average supplier risk (35%) and the inverse of the resilience index (25%). It maps to the same four tiers as suppliers.
Toggles (geopolitical shock, key-supplier disruption, climate event, regulatory tightening) and sliders (commodity price, demand, diversification effort) adjust the model's likelihoods, impacts, supplier indicators and resilience factors. When a disruption scenario is active, the displayed VaR applies a stress-cascade multiplier of ×1.68 — late-delivery penalties (0.15), inventory (0.08), expediting (0.20) and customer attrition (0.25).
Gap scores (0 = compliant, 100 = full exposure) for CSRD, CS3D, the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, conflict-minerals / forced-labour and trade sanctions weight the regulatory risk category.